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Changing Nature of Monsoon in the Indian Subcontinent During 21st Century

Dr. Pankaj Kumar Soni

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) underpins water security, agriculture, and economic stability across the subcontinent. This study reassesses its 21st-century behavior using authenticated secondary data: the IITM All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) percent departures (1871–2019) and the NOAA/CPC ERSSTv5 Niño-3.4 monthly sea-surface temperature anomalies aggregated to JJAS (1950–2019). Methods include Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope for monotonic trends, Pearson and Kendall correlation for ENSO teleconnections, phase-wise (El Niño/Neutral/La Niña) composites, and 21-year rolling correlations to probe non-stationarity. Results show no robust century-scale trend in national-mean JJAS rainfall; interannual variability dominates. AISMR is significantly and inversely related to JJAS Niño-3.4, though the strength of this relationship varies by epoch. Era-wise distributions indicate heavier tails as more frequent moderate deficits and surpluses despite a near-stationary mean. A literature-anchored synthesis (IMD daily grids, ERA5, and peer-reviewed studies) corroborates growing regional contrasts and an increase in heavy-rain events in parts of central/western India, even as some northeastern and northwestern regions show declines. Policy implications emphasize planning for volatility via impact-based forecasts, adaptive water operations, climate-smart agriculture, and updated urban drainage design. The analysis is transparent and reproducible, with figures and tables generated programmatically from the cited sources.

Soni, P. (2025). Changing Nature of Monsoon in the Indian Subcontinent During 21st Century. International Journal of Innovations & Research Analysis, 05(04(I)), 01–18. https://doi.org/10.62823/ijira/05.04(i).8105

DOI:

Article DOI: 10.62823/IJIRA/05.04(I).8105

DOI URL: https://doi.org/10.62823/IJIRA/05.04(I).8105


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