ISO 9001:2015

International Journal of Innovations & Research Analysis (IJIRA) [ Vol. 6 | No. 1(II) | January - March, 2026 ]

The Global Economic Shock of the 2026 Iran–Israel War: Energy, Inflation, and Growth Dynamics

Dr. Aamar Moorjani

The U.S.–Israel war against Iran that commenced on 28 February 2026 (Operation Epic Fury) represents the world's largest energy security crisis since the 1970s oil embargo. This paper conducts a rigorous empirical and analytical analysis of the economic impacts of the 2026 Iran–Israel-US conflict, channelled through the main identifying and contextual pathways, namely: energy markets disruption; inflation pass-through and GDP growth revision; disruption of trade and shipping; volatile financial markets and financial contagion; and asymmetric regional impacts. The paper uses Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, scenario analysis, and comparative cross-country models encompassing 19 economies to show that the price of Brent crude oil jumped 55.3% from $72.48 to $112.57 per barrel within one month; the OLS model captures 84.7% of the variance of 19 cross-country GDP revisions (R² = 0.847); and the IMF downwardly revised its forecast of global GDP growth from 3.3% to 3.1% in its best-case scenario, while the worst-case scenario led to recession risk if the conflict continued into 2026. Global inflation forecasts increased 0.6 percentage points to 4.4%, with scenarios of continuing conflict projecting inflationary rates above 6%. The research shows that Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain are the worst-affected economies, with evidence of unequal sharing of costs that affect energy-importing emerging markets in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The study addresses a gap in the literature by offering the first holistic quantitative approach to this conflict's economic structure, alongside recommendations for policies to counter this crisis by monetary policymakers, international organisations, and energy security analysts.

Moorjani, A. (2026). The Global Economic Shock of the 2026 Iran–Israel War: Energy, Inflation, and Growth Dynamics. International Journal of Innovations & Research Analysis, 06(01(II)), 87–98. https://doi.org/10.62823/IJIRA/06.1(II).8792
  1. Al Jazeera (2026a). How badly has the Iran war hit the global economy? The tell-tale signs. Al Jazeera Economy, March 16, 2026.
  2. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/16
  3. Al Jazeera (2026b). IMF cuts global growth forecast during Hormuz blockade. Al Jazeera Economy, April 14, 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/14
  4. Al Jazeera (2026c). As US-Iran talks remain stalled, experts warn of long-term disruptions. Al Jazeera Economy, April 28, 2026.
  5. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/28
  6. Asian Development Bank (2026). ADB Economic Monitor: Energy shock and Asia-Pacific macroeconomic resilience. ADB Publications, March 2026.
  7. Baumeister, C., & Kilian, L. (2016). Forty years of oil price fluctuations: Why the price of oil may still surprise us. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(1), 139–160.
  8. Berger, H., & Nitsch, V. (2008). Gotcha! A profile of smuggling in international trade. CESifo Working Paper No. 2475.
  9. Blanchard, O. J., & Galí, J. (2010). The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? In J. Galí & M. Gertler (Eds.), International Dimensions of Monetary Policy (pp. 373–428). University of Chicago Press.
  10. Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77(3), 623–685.
  11. Bowlus, J. (2016). Strait of Hormuz disruption scenarios: Energy market and strategic implications. Naval War College Review, 69(3), 45–72.
  12. Caldara, D., & Iacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring geopolitical risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194–1225.
  13. Capital Economics (2026). Iran conflict: Macroeconomic scenarios. Global Macro Research, March 9, 2026.
  14. Chatham House (2026). How will the Iran war affect the global economy? Associate Fellow Analysis, Global Economy and Finance Programme, March 11, 2026. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/03
  15. Cordesman, A. H., & Gold, B. (2014). The Gulf military balance volume III: The Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula. CSIS Press.
  16. Council on Foreign Relations (2026). The Iran war's global economic impact. CFR Daily News Brief, March 20, 2026. https://www.cfr.org/articles/the-iran-wars-global-economic-impact
  17. Fattouh, B. (2021). The Asian premium revisited: A market structure explanation. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Paper OEF 105.
  18. Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 228–248.
  19. Hamilton, J. D. (2009). Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007–08. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2009(1), 215–261.
  20. International Monetary Fund (2026a). World Economic Outlook: Navigating geopolitical turbulence. IMF Publications, April 2026.
  21. International Monetary Fund (2026b). IMF Spring Meetings press briefing. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Chief Economist, April 14, 2026.
  22. Kilian, L. (2009). Not all oil price shocks are alike: Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market. American Economic Review, 99(3), 1053–1069.
  23. Kori, N. K. S. (2026). The economic impact of the 2026 Iran-Israel-U.S. conflict on global energy, inflation, and trade. SSRN Working Paper 6523578. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6523578
  24. LSE Middle East Centre (2026). The economic impact of the Iran war: A global supply chain shock. LSE Blog, April 15, 2026. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/mec/2026/04/15
  25. OECD (2026). OECD Economic Outlook: Interim assessment on Middle East conflict impact. OECD Publishing, March 2026.
  26. Oxford Economics (2026). Impact of the Iran-Israel escalation on oil prices. Oxford Economics Resource, February 11, 2026.
  27. https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/iran-israel-escalation
  28. Reis, R. (2022). The burst of high inflation in 2021–22: How and why did we get here? BIS Working Paper No. 1060.
  29. Research Square (2026). The global economic impact of the 2026 Iran–US war: A hybrid time-series and comparative cross-country analysis. Research Square Preprint, April 2026. https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-9542524/v1
  30. Romer, C. D., & Romer, D. H. (2004). A new measure of monetary shocks: Derivation and implications. American Economic Review, 94(4), 1055–1084.
  31. TIME (2026). How the war with Iran is impacting economies in Asia. TIME Magazine, March 16, 2026. https://time.com/article/2026/03/16/us-israel-iran-war-trump-asia-economy-oil
  32. TIME (2026b). War on Iran could lead to global recession, IMF warns. TIME Magazine, April 15, 2026. https://time.com/article/2026/04/15/imf-global-recession-war-us-israel-iran-energy-hormuz
  33. US Energy Information Administration (2024). Strait of Hormuz: World's most important oil transit chokepoint. EIA Energy Reports.
  34. Wikipedia (2026). Economic impact of the 2026 Iran war. Wikimedia Foundation, last updated April 30, 2026.
  35. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_2026_Iran_war
  36. World Economic Forum (2026). The global price tag of war in the Middle East. WEF Stories, March 12, 2026. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/03/the-global-price-tag-of-war-in-the-middle-east.

DOI:

Article DOI: 10.62823/IJIRA/06.1(II).8792

DOI URL: https://doi.org/10.62823/IJIRA/06.1(II).8792


Download Full Paper:

Download